—…• —%—…• —%—…• —%—…• —%—…• —%
—…• —%—…• —%—…• —%—…• —%—…• —%—…• —%—…• —%—…• —%—…• —%—…• —%—…• —%—…• —%—…• —%—…• —%—…• —%—…• —%—…• —%—…• —%—…• —%—…• —%
BitBlog Logo

Bitcoin Halving Cycles

Every ~4 years, Bitcoin's block reward is cut in half, creating predictable supply shocks that have historically driven major bull market cycles. Learn the patterns, timelines, and what to expect.

Days Since Halving
633
Halved on 4/20/2024
Next Halving
27 mo
~4/1/2028 (Block 1,050,000)
Current Reward
3.125
BTC per block (~10 min)
Cycle Progress
43%
Of typical 4-year cycle

Bitcoin Price History Across All Cycles

Real historical Bitcoin prices showing all halving events and subsequent bull markets. Each cycle follows a similar pattern.

Loading real Bitcoin price data...

Bitcoin Price (log scale)
Halving Events

Cycle Overlay Comparison

All cycles normalized to Day 0 = Halving date. Notice the similar patterns but diminishing returns each cycle.

Historical Cycle Performance

CycleDateRewardBottomTopDays to TopROIDrawdown
1
Cycle 1
Nov 201225 BTC$2$1,150368+57,400%-86%
2
Cycle 2
Jul 201612.5 BTC$164$19,700526+11,900%-84%
3
Cycle 3
May 20206.25 BTC$3,850$69,000548+1,692%-77%
4
Cycle 4
Apr 20243.125 BTC$15,500TBD~400-550TBDTBD

The Four Phases of a Halving Cycle

1

Bear Market Bottom

Months -12 to 0: Price finds bottom after previous cycle's peak. Typically 6-18 months before the halving.

• Maximum fear and capitulation
• Media declares "Bitcoin is dead"
• Accumulation phase for smart money

2

Halving Event

Month 0: Block reward cuts in half, reducing daily BTC supply by 50%.

• Supply shock takes time to materialize
• Price often consolidates for months
• "Buy the rumor, sell the news" mindset

3

Bull Market Rally

Months 6-18: Exponential price growth as supply shortage meets increasing demand.

• Parabolic price action
• Mainstream media attention
• New all-time highs
• Peak occurs 12-18 months post-halving

4

Bear Market Decline

Months 18-48: Correction and consolidation after euphoric peak.

• 75-85% drawdown from peak
• Weak hands sell to strong hands
• Cycle repeats with next halving

Key Observations

Diminishing Returns: Each cycle produces smaller percentage gains than the previous one. Cycle 1: 57,400%, Cycle 2: 11,900%, Cycle 3: 1,692%. This is expected as Bitcoin matures.
Consistent Timeline: Bull markets peak 12-18 months (~400-550 days) after each halving. This pattern has held across all three completed cycles.
Similar Drawdowns: Bear market corrections range from 75-86% from peak to bottom, regardless of the absolute price levels.
Pre-Halving Rally: Price typically begins rising 6-12 months before the halving as the market anticipates the supply reduction.

What's Different in Cycle 4 (2024)?

Spot Bitcoin ETFs

Approved in January 2024, bringing institutional capital and easier access for traditional investors.

Regulatory Clarity

More regulatory frameworks in place compared to previous cycles, increasing legitimacy.

Global Adoption

Countries like El Salvador making Bitcoin legal tender. Growing corporate treasury holdings.

Higher Starting Point

Halving occurred near ATH ($64k vs $8.7k in 2020), potentially altering the typical pattern.

Important Considerations

Past Performance ≠ Future Results: While patterns have been consistent, there's no guarantee they will continue. Market conditions, regulation, and adoption levels constantly evolve.
Macro Factors Matter: Global economic conditions, monetary policy, inflation, and geopolitical events can significantly impact Bitcoin's price action.
Not Investment Advice: This is educational content. Always do your own research and never invest more than you can afford to lose.

Learn More

Stock-to-Flow Model
Understand Bitcoin's scarcity valuation
Chart Patterns
Master technical analysis patterns